Following a change of approach we had our first win on the football this season at the third attempt after hitting the bar on our first two attempts.
With the change of approach proving successful, I think we’ll continue to take a flexible approach to our stakes and selections on the football; there will always be the opportunity to back bigger priced multiples but we’ll also look for where there is some value on single selections. Football betting may generally be a discipline with shorter odds than racing, which tends to encourage stacking up multiples, but you can still find value and make a success of backing short priced singles on the football and these shouldn’t be sniffed at. After all, a winner is a winner and profit is profit.
Anyway, back to the football itself and this weekend sees a full programme across football league, which provides ample opportunity to solidify our new approach.
Derby to win away at Birmingham –
To use a big footballing cliché, Gary Rowett will be keen to win this on the return to his former club from which he was cruelly dismissed – I’m sure he wants to win every match he plays, not just those at former clubs. Derby have started to pick-up some form under Rowett and have won two on the bounce including against an in-form Fulham last time out. They have left it too late to challenge for the play-offs but will look to take momentum into next season and many of the players could be playing for their futures, with Gary Rowett likely to make changes over the summer.
Birmingham sacked Gary Rowett when in play-off contention in December and have gone downhill fast under Gianfranco Zola, had the season started at that point they’d be in serious threat of relegation. The Blues should just about have enough of a cushion to stay up but aren’t completely out of danger. There are few positives to take from then since Zola has taken over and they look vulnerable here.
Derby should have far too much for Birmingham here, they’ve been up and down through the year but could have pushed for promotion with a more patient chairman, who in my view is far too trigger happy. They’ve lacked goals to a certain extent this season, which would be the danger here, but they look overpriced for me.
Accrington to Win at Home to Crewe
This is a fairly straight forward selection with Accrington, who are unbeaten in twelve league games, expected to be too good for Crewe Alexandra at home. There is only seven points and four places separating the two sides but I don’t think that tells the full story.
Accrington have been consistently good this season, starting the season well before hitting a rocky patch in terms of results but not performance. Even when they were on a run of poor results the stats suggested that they were slightly unlucky as they were consistently creating good number of chances each game without scoring. They have since gone on an impressive run of form and will be good for another season of League football.
Crewe on the other hand have seemed to be struggling for much of the season. I don’t know if that was because of over-inflated expectations or issues happening outside of the day-to-day of the club, but they’ve regularly looked to a step away from crisis and their form, both home and away, is a model of inconsistency.
I fancy Accrington to continue their run of form with a home win on Saturday.
Derby – 2pts @ 11/8 (Numerous)
Derby & Accrington – 2pt Double @ 3.75 (Betfair)