Football Preview: 4th May

Sitting at a profit of +7.43 after just around six weeks and our first selection in the play-offs coming in, it’s a shame the season is drawing to a close and we’ll have to wait to reinvest all of that lovely profit.

We posted Kidderminster as our selection in the National League North play-offs yesterday and we are sticking with the play-offs today but moving up the league pyramid for our picks.

 

Bradford to Win at Home to Fleetwood – Best Price 10/11 (Various)

Fifth placed Bradford host fourth placed Fleetwood in the first-leg of the League One play-offs and, as finishing positions would suggest, there isn’t a great deal between these two sides but we’re siding with Bradford to secure a first-leg advantage.

There was just three points separating these after the 46 game season and I expect it to be just as tight tonight, with there also being little between the respective home and away form of each, both winning 11 times in those situations.  However, although Bradford only won 11 at home all season they did finish the season unbeaten at home and had one of the stingiest home defences in the league, conceding just 17 all season.

Pair this with the recent inconsistent form of Fleetwood and the fact they do not score a lot of goals regularly (they have failed to score more than one goal in seven of their last ten) and Bradford look the more likely winners.

It will be incredibly tight over the two legs and Bradford do draw a lot of games at home, however, I think Bradford can just edge this first leg over Fleetwood who have done incredibly well to get this far but may just fall short here.

 

Scunthorpe to Win Away to Millwall – Best Price 16/5 (Bet365)

Third take on sixth in this first leg and I think third placed Scunthorpe are a great price to win at The Den.

Scunthorpe come into this game off of five wins on the bounce and look to have the momentum heading into the play-offs.  This is in contrast to Millwall who looked to have hit a bit of sticky patch heading into the final few games, losing two games before securing a late minute winner and the final play-off position in their last game of the season.

Millwall have a decent home record over the season and with a big crowd The Den can still be a very daunting place to play for many teams, however, they have conceded a high number of goals for a team in their position and could be vulnerable to a high scoring Scunthorpe.  In addition to this, the Millwall squad has been hit with a sickness bug and concerns must remain over their fitness and condition heading into such a key game.

This will be a very tough game for Scunthorpe and they may look to keep things tight away from home in the first leg; but I can’t get away from the thought that they look much too big a price given each side’s respective finishing position.

 

ADVICE:

Bradford – ½ point @ 10/11 Paddy Power

Scunthorpe – ½ point @ 16/5 Bet365

Bradford & Scunthorpe – ½ point Double @ 6.98 Bet365